Population in the world Today :: essays papers

Population in the world Today Probably the most pressing concern of the modern world both environmentally and socially is the escalating global population. The geometrical growth in numbers over the ending deoxycytidine monophosphate, when estimated, presents an ominous picture of massive, unsustainable growth and accompanying famines and health crises. Yet, to simply maintain the current trend is naive, and informed estimates of population trends are increasingly predicting a less disastrous future. The latest study shows an 85% chance that global population leave behind eyeshade before 2100, and predicts with 60% certainty that this peak will be less than 10 billion, compared with a population of 6 billion today. They even give an outside chance, 15%, that there will be fewer people living at the end of the century than are alive now. Their results are notable not just for the relatively low figures projected, but also for the rigorous analysis that accompanies them. Whereas the United commonwealth estimates present just four possible outcomes (constant, high, medium and low). The US nosecount Bureau includes peculiar(prenominal) chances of a particular scenario occurring on a specific date. This graphically illust range the confidence (or otherwise) of predictions further into the future. To arrive at their conclusions, the team unite two forecasting techniques time series estimation, a statistical analysis found on known figures, and expert judgment, whereby key parameters are estimated taking into account foreseeable events such as disease, war and fertility trends. Apart from the lower extreme population figure estimated (8.8 billion by 2050, compared to 9.3 for the UNs medium estimate, 2000 revision). Population disintegration in developed nations is judge to accelerate, with the European part of the former USSR expected to lose 20% of it population by 2050. Such declines lead ineluctably to ageing populations, and half of all people living in japan at the end of the century are predicted to be over 60 years old. With these facts, there is no doubt in our minds that we are in for just about trouble. Over the next 50 years, the United States alone faces some population problems. What we need to do is keep the growth rate at stage 4, meaning we need to have birth and death rates low.